Ukraine faces shortage of young men to replenish depleted military ranks amid Russian aggression

KYIV: Ukraine is facing a demographic crisis as the war continues, with not enough young men to meet the demands of both the battlefield and the workforce.
Ukraine’s population, which was already shrinking fast before Russia’s invasion, has seen declines due to migration, low birth rates, and a conflict that continues to claim more lives.
Before the war, the population stood at around 45 million. Now, it is estimated to have fallen by about 10 million. 
The demographic under the largest threat is young men aged under 30, which make up the smallest population group in the country.
They were born during the economic collapse of the Soviet Union, and the ongoing war could shrink their generation even more.
Currently, less than 5 million men are under the age of 30. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, this figure was about 6 million. 
After nearly three years of war, the country is in desperate need of more soldiers.
More – and younger – men have been called up to fight. In April, a new law was passed to lower the conscription age from 27 to 25.
Meanwhile, some men who have not reached the draft-eligible age have volunteered to help defend their country. 
“I spent a lot of time preparing, both mentally and physically, and I had to persuade my mother before coming here,” said a 20-year-old former coal miner known as Nikita. 
To expand the draft pool further, a new law now allows some convicts to join the fight, depending on the severity of their crimes.
So far, more than 3,000 prisoners have taken up the offer.
Among them is a bodybuilder known as Andre, who was sentenced to four years in jail for stealing money from his employer.
Signing on with the military is a chance to make things right, he said. 
“They can erase all violations you had and pardon you. That means you can start all over again. Such a chance has never been given to anyone before,” he added. 
Despite the new measures, Ukraine still does not have enough men on and off the battlefield.
The country has a serious labour shortage that is hurting its war-ravaged economy.
The available workforce has shrunk 27 per cent since Russia’s invasion. This shortage has hit the service, retail and transport sectors hard.
To plug the gaps, more women are taking up typically male-dominated jobs.
Housewife Tatyana Pavlenko, for instance, is learning how to drive a logistics truck.
“My main motivation for doing this is, when the full-scale invasion began, I saw that big businesses were having to move their products further west,” said the 42-year-old.
“My sister works in such an enterprise. There was a shortage of drivers because many people fled.”
Training programmes for women have popped up across Ukraine, mainly in the transport sector.
Economist and demographer Ella Libanova of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine said that the demographic problem will only get worse, unless Ukraine is able to get refugees to return after the war and attract immigrants. 
Of the 17 million people who fled the country since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, only around 60 per cent have returned so far.
“There is a risk that husbands will go to their wives abroad, and families will be reunited not in Ukraine but abroad,” said Libanova. 
“This is a very serious risk. We are very afraid of that. We are working on how to prevent that. I don’t know if it will work.”
Most of the Ukrainians who fled the country during the conflict are young and of working age, observers pointed out. 
Now, Ukraine has to look after one of the world’s fastest-ageing populations, where around a quarter of its people are over the age of 60. 
Ukraine is a social welfare country, and 60 per cent of its population are socially dependent on the state, said Lyudmila Kostyuk, deputy director of the Kyiv Nursing Home of Labor Veterans. 
About 20 per cent are children, and the remaining 20 per cent are the working population, according to figures from the Ministry of Social Policy.
“In the future, there will be a need to provide assistance to more people,” said Kostyuk. “I do not see an improvement in this situation.”
Since the war started, all of Ukraine’s tax income has gone to its defence. 
Observers have highlighted a need for more Ukrainian refugees to return and help raise its tax income. 
Analyst Serhiy Fursa told CNA that “almost half of the younger Ukrainian population who should pay taxes didn’t do it”. 
Unless the war ends, few foreigners may want to settle and more Ukrainians will continue to be displaced, said analysts. 
Since the war started, millions of elderly Ukrainians have had to flee their homes and leave everything behind. 
“All of my clothes, everything that I had, nothing is left,” said 85-year-old nursing home resident Anastasia Zheltonog, who fled the eastern Donetsk region during the first year of conflict and now lives in a nursing home in Kyiv.
“I lived well. While my husband was alive, I had everything – a car, a house, and everything else. Everything has gone to pieces, nothing is left, not even clothes.”